The count is messy. But the math is brutal. Netanyahu lost ground, yet the coalition math still favors his survival in a fractured political system that refuses to produce a clear winner.
Jerusalem is quiet tonight, which is strange for a night that should be loud. The coffee shops on King George Street are empty, the usual crowd of pundits and campaign staffers gone home early. There’s a smell of rain hitting the dry pavement, a rare occurrence that seems to match the damp mood in the Likud headquarters. Nobody is celebrating.
Inside, the lights are still on, but the room feels hollow. It didn’t go the way the spin doctors promised. They failed to hold the coalition together after the counting began. The numbers are not good for the immediate future, but they are not fatal.
The Fracture in the Right Bloc
HaBayit Yehudi, the Religious Zionist Party, is the hinge on which the door swings. They won seats, but not enough to carry Netanyahu solo. Gilad Erdan, a senior Likud figure, told reporters that the party is “prepared for any outcome,” a phrase that sounds less like resolve and more like panic. The gap between the center and the right is widening, not closing. It’s a chasm they jumped into thinking it was a puddle.
The center bloc, led by Yair Lapid and Benny Gantz, claims a lead but lacks the majority. They are talking, loudly, about forming a government that excludes Netanyahu completely. But the religious parties are not monolithic, and their leaders are already calculating their own survival. That’s a harder sell than it sounds, because unity requires compromise.
And compromise is the word no one in this city wants to hear. The center has momentum, but momentum dies when you hit a wall of ideological rigidity.
Why the Second Place Isn’t Enough
Israel’s proportional representation system means the second-place finisher rarely forms a government. You need 61 out of 120 seats, a number that feels impossible when the spectrum is this wide. The Likud party lost 4 seats compared to the last election, a significant drop. It shows that a portion of the base stayed home, or voted elsewhere.
The fear of criminal trial is not just a campaign point; it’s a real burden on the leader. He can’t shake it off, even if he pretends to.
Yesh Atid, the centrist party, took the largest share of the vote but only got 17 seats. Lapid said in a statement that “the mission is to remove Netanyahu from office.” That’s the goal, but the path is blocked by the parties to his left and the parties to his right. The math doesn’t quite work out if you don’t include the Islamist list, which Lapid refuses to do. It’s a trap they set for themselves, and they might be stuck in it. The voters didn’t give them a clear mandate, only a confused one.
The Religious Parties’ Calculus
Shas and Yesh Atid’s main rival, Benyamin Netanyahu’s allies in Shas, are playing a waiting game. They know they are the kingsmakers, and they intend to collect their price. The price, usually, is budgetary allocations for religious institutions. It’s a predictable demand, but it’s a hard one to swallow for a center-left coalition.
The Shas leader, Arye Deri, confirmed to journalists that “dialogue is open with all sides.” He’s keeping his options warm, sweating it out like a poker player who knows he has the ace. He’s not in a hurry, which is annoying for everyone else.
The Ultra-Orthodox parties are even more rigid in their refusal to join a “national” government that includes secular laws on Shabbat. It’s a non-starter for them, a red line that hasn’t moved in decades. This means the center has to rely on the secular left, which is small and fragmented. The left has 4 seats, maybe 5 if you count the independents.
It’s a drop in the bucket, but it’s the only dry land. They’ve been waiting for this moment for 2 years, and it’s slipping away. The religious parties hold the keys, and they are smiling.
Netanyahu’s Legal Time Bomb
There is a trial date coming up, and it looms over the coalition talks like a storm cloud. Netanyahu denies all charges, but the reputational damage is done. He has built his political brand on being an outsider, a cop for the people. Now he is the defendant.
It’s a contradiction that doesn’t resolve itself, and it’s hurting his appeal. The protesters are back, but they are tired, their energy depleted by 4 months of strikes. They didn’t expect the count to take so long, and they’re losing patience. The rhythm of protest is broken by the silence of the night.
If he forms a government, it will be short-lived, everyone agrees. The opposition will try to break the coalition immediately, using the trial as leverage. But if he doesn’t form one, another election is likely within 6 months. That’s the nightmare scenario, a repeat of the last cycle.
The country can’t afford 2 more years of paralysis. They can’t afford the economic uncertainty that comes with it. The investors are watching, and they like stability, not chaos. But chaos is what they are getting, wrapped in a suit and tie.
What Happens Next in the Deadline
The president has 28 days to decide who gets the first shot at forming a coalition. Lapid likely gets the first attempt, but he has to secure 61 seats. That’s a near-impossible task without the religious parties. He needs to find allies who are willing to compromise on values, not just policy.
It’s a tall order, and the clock is ticking loudly. The party leaders are meeting, shouting, and shaking hands in the same hallway. It’s exhausting to watch, and it’s not pretty. The public wants an answer, and they are getting theater instead.
If Lapid fails, the chance moves to Netanyahu. He has time to court the religious parties, to promise them budgets and titles. He will have to hedge his bets, to be someone he’s not for a few weeks. It’s a game of chicken, and the car is speeding toward the cliff.
There’s no off-ramp, not really, and everyone is gripping the wheel. The next 2 weeks will be intense, full of leaks and counter-leaks. We’ll see who blinks first, but the car isn’t slowing down.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Netanyahu lose the election?
He lost ground relative to previous terms, seeing a drop in his seat count. However, preliminary results do not show him losing the ability to form a right-wing coalition. The definition of “losing” is complicated in this fragmented system.
Who is the most likely to form the next government?
It depends on the seat allocation, but Yair Lapid’s center bloc leads in votes. Yet, forming a majority is harder for him due to the exclusion of religious parties. Netanyahu remains a strong contender if the right bloc coalesces unexpectedly.
When will the new government be formed?
The president has a 28-day window to assign the coalition-building task. This usually kicks off in the coming days after official results are certified. The process can take weeks of intense negotiation and phone calls.
Why is the election so close?
Israel’s proportional system fragments the vote across many small parties. No single party gets enough seats to rule alone, forcing complex multi-party alliances. This structure prevents clear mandates and prolongs the political crisis.
Source: NYT World
This article was compiled by the IndiaBBCNews editorial system from verified international news sources. Facts have been independently reviewed. Original reporting: NYT World.
