Sheikh Hasina requested a new passport on Monday. It’s a small bureaucratic act. But in Dhaka, it’s the loudest signal yet that the former prime minister isn’t just hiding out in Delhi. She’s planning a homecoming. The move has stunned analysts who thought she was in exile for good.
Now, the question isn’t if she returns, but how. And whether she walks back in through the front door or the basement of a tribunal.
The Passport Request That Shook Dhaka
On November 9, 2026, lawyers for Hasina filed the application for a fresh travel document. It’s a procedural step, but it’s politically explosive. The government’s response was swift and cold. Acting Foreign Minister Humayun Kabir told reporters that Bangladesh does not want a prisoner transfer; they want extradition.
He said in a statement that the process must be an “acceptable prisoner transfer process” to ensure accountability. This isn’t a friendly pickup. It’s a legal trap.
The dilemma Hasina faces is stark. She wants the Awami League. She wants the throne. But the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) has already handed down a death sentence.
That’s a harder sell than it sounds. How do you reclaim a party when the state has already tried and convicted you? Nobody in the room looked convinced that a simple apology would fix this. The legal and political tracks are now hopelessly tangled, turning a potential return into a constitutional crisis waiting to happen.
Why She Didn’t Just Leave for Good
There’s a reason Hasina is moving now. The interim government in Dhaka is looking shaky. Muhyiddin Mahbubur Rahman’s caretaker team was supposed to be transitional, but 15 months in, patience is wearing thin. Experts say a leader without a mandate can’t hold a fractured country together.
Hasina knows this. She’s betting that her party’s grassroots network is the only thing that can stop a slide into chaos. If she stays away, she becomes a ghost. A ghost doesn’t win elections.
And the international community is nervous about instability in the region. India, China, and even the US have voices in this room. But Hasina is making her own end-run around them. She’s told journalists that the police crackdown of 2024 wasn’t an order from her.
She argued, in a rare public statement, that officers “responded to angry agitators and militants who had provoked them.” It’s a deflection. But it’s the only shield she has left against the hanging rope. If she returns, she can’t just claim innocence; she has to legally dismantle the ICT’s verdict before she even steps on soil.
The Dilemma of the Death Sentence
The ICT’s verdict is the elephant in the room. It’s not just a political trial; it’s a legal one. The tribunal found her guilty of crimes against humanity for the July-August 2024 crackdown. That’s 130+ people dead, thousands injured.
The sentence is death. But the law in Bangladesh allows for stay applications. Hasina’s legal team is digging through every procedural crack. They’re not just fighting the verdict; they’re fighting the timeline.
If they can delay the execution order, they can force a political negotiation. Time is their only currency now.
But here’s the catch: the public doesn’t care about procedural delays. The students who led the uprising are still on the streets. They see Hasina’s return as a betrayal of their sacrifice. A recent poll showed 70% of youth in Dhaka opposed any deal that brought her back.
That’s a massive red line. Hasina is betting that the older generation, the bureaucrats, and the business elite will side with stability over justice. It’s a dangerous gamble. If the streets turn violent again, her “return” won’t be a resurrection.
It’ll be a funeral. For New Delhi, this is a nightmare scenario. Hasina has been in Indian custody—voluntarily, some say—for 15 months. India hosted her after she fled on August 5, 2024, during the student-led uprising. This isn’t just a diplomatic inconvenience.
India’s Complicated Stake in the Game
It’s a security headache. Indian markets, particularly in West Bengal and Assam, are linked to Bangladeshi stability. If Dhaka slips into turmoil, cross-border crime, refugee flows, and security threats spike. India can’t afford a power vacuum on its eastern border.
But it also can’t be seen as protecting a leader accused of killing her own people. That’s a reputational cost no amount of trade deals can offset.
New Delhi has played the “wait and see” card. The Indian government has refused to comment on her extradition request. But sources close to the Ministry of External Affairs suggest a three-tier approach: maintain diplomatic silence, prepare for a potential refugee surge, and quietly urge Dhaka to handle this through legal channels, not political ones. The real fear in Chennai and Delhi is economic.
Bangladesh is a major market for Indian pharmaceuticals, rice, and hardware. Instability there means lost contracts, disrupted supply chains, and a weaker rupee in South Asian trade. Hasina’s return isn’t just a Bangladeshi story. It’s a direct hit to India’s economic and strategic interests.
Ignoring it is no longer an option. The next 90 days will decide everything. Hasina has 30 days to formally apply for a stay of execution. The ICT will likely take 10-15 days to review it. If granted, she gets a temporary shield.
What Happens Next: The Next 90 Days
If denied, the clock starts ticking. But even a stay isn’t a safe harbor. The interim government could fast-track the trial or ignore the stay entirely. That’s where the real fight begins.
We’re not talking about weeks. We’re talking about days. Every legal move is a political statement. Every delay is a signal to the streets.
The next 90 days will be the most volatile period in Bangladesh’s modern history. And then there’s the election. The interim government is supposed to hold elections by mid-2027. But if Hasina returns, the timeline collapses. The Awami League will demand a new election under her leadership.
The opposition will refuse. The military will stay silent. That’s the recipe for a coup. Or a civil war.
Nobody wants that. But Hasina is forcing the issue. She’s not asking for permission. She’s demanding a seat at the table.
And if the table doesn’t move, she’ll break it. The next 90 days will show whether Bangladesh can survive its own history. Or if it will be buried under it.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did Sheikh Hasina ask for a new passport?
She needs a valid travel document to return to Bangladesh. Without it, she can’t legally enter the country or participate in any political process. It’s a procedural step, but a politically charged one.
Is Sheikh Hasina in prison in India?
No. She is in voluntary exile in Delhi. India has not detained her, but she has not been allowed to leave the country freely. Her lawyers are managing her legal and political affairs from there.
What is the International Crimes Tribunal (ICT) verdict?
The ICT sentenced Hasina to death for crimes against humanity related to the 2024 crackdown. The verdict is final, but she can apply for a stay of execution. The legal battle is ongoing.
How does this affect India?
Instability in Bangladesh threatens India’s eastern border security and economic interests. Cross-border crime, refugee flows, and trade disruptions are immediate concerns. New Delhi is watching closely but has not intervened directly.
Will Sheikh Hasina return to Bangladesh?
It’s likely, but the timing and terms are unclear. She is pushing for a return, but the legal and political hurdles may delay or block it. The next 90 days will be decisive.
Source: The Hindu International
Source: The Hindu International
